Four Guidance documents have been published since the creation of the UIC Covid-19 Task Force:
In March: the first guidance document, “Management of Covid-19 – Guidance for railway stakeholders”.
In April: a second guidance document, “Potential measures to restore confidence in rail travel following the Covid-19 pandemic,”.
In May: a third guidance document, “RAILsilience – How the rail sector fought Covid-19 during lockdowns,”.
In June, a fourth guidance document, “RAILsilience, back on track”.
This month, the UIC Covid-19 Task Force conducted a revenue impact analysis concerning the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic on the rail sector. The analysis is based on data provided by the UIC Covid-19 Task Force members, which were collected in May 2020 via questionnaires, and also from desk research carried out by the Task Force working group.
UIC created a database using economic data from different international organisations. Within this economic model, and due to the unprecedented, dynamic situation that is evolving and changing every day, two scenarios were considered:
The first scenario considers a travel demand later this year weakened by the impact of global recession on jobs and confidence, impacting the freight activity as well. Under this scenario a slow recovery of the rail sector goes on in the second half of 2020 and during 2021 as well. Full year passenger demand is expected to decline an average of up to 30% compared to 2019 while the freight sector is expected to decline an average of up to 10% when compared to a year ago.
The second scenario assumes a continuation of the crisis following travel restrictions lasting for several months in the second half of 2020, with a gradual economic recovery occurring in 2021. The passenger revenues are assumed to decline in 2020 at a similar rate to those of the slow recovery (losses reaching up to one third of revenues in 2020 when compared to 2019 revenue figures) like the freight revenue (losses up to approximately 10% in 2020 when compared to 2019 revenue figures).
This guidance document is available with all the publications on the UIC Covid-19 dedicated webpage:
Task Force meetings will resume at the end of August. Work on future guidance documents will also resume in September to take into account the requirements of the changing situation. Many thanks to all the members who have contributed to these guidance documents since earlier this year.
You can also join the LinkedIn group UIC Covid-19 Task Force for exchange and discussions: https://bit.ly/3eVFNWN